Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
